The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has raised fresh concerns over the Nigeria debt burden, warning that the country remains exposed to significant fiscal risks despite marginal improvements in key debt indicators. The policy group said Nigeria’s debt position continues to reflect structural weaknesses in revenue generation and public finance management, even as some headline figures show temporary stabilisation.
The NESG’s latest assessment is contained in its debt monitoring analysis tracking Nigeria’s fiscal position between 2024 and 2025. The group noted that while the Debt Burden Index declined in 2024 compared to 2023, the improvement was not strong enough to signal long-term stability.
According to the report, Nigeria’s fiscal challenges remain tied to weak revenue performance, rising borrowing needs, and high debt servicing obligations. These factors continue to shape the broader Nigeria debt burden, even as policymakers point to reforms and exchange rate adjustments as partial explanations for recent debt dynamics.
The NESG reported that Nigeria’s Debt Burden Index fell to 70.9 points in 2024 from 83.6 points in 2023, indicating some easing in debt pressure on paper. However, the group stressed that this was largely driven by reduced debt servicing strain rather than a strong fiscal recovery.
It also noted that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 40.6 per cent in 2024, reflecting continued reliance on borrowing to finance budget deficits. This divergence between improving index readings and rising debt ratios highlights the complexity of the Nigeria debt burden situation.
The report further projected that debt pressures would remain elevated in 2025, with the Debt Burden Index expected to fluctuate within a high-stress range across all quarters of the year. NESG described this pattern as evidence that fiscal adjustment remains incomplete.
While some improvements in debt indicators have been linked to policy adjustments and exchange rate reforms, analysts say these have not yet translated into broad-based fiscal stability. The continued rise in borrowing and debt servicing obligations remains central to the Nigeria debt burden discussion.
NESG warned that Nigeria’s current fiscal trajectory still exposes the economy to vulnerability, particularly if revenue growth does not keep pace with spending commitments. The group stressed that debt sustainability depends heavily on stronger revenue mobilisation and improved public financial management.
Economists note that persistent pressure from debt servicing reduces fiscal space for infrastructure, health, and education spending. This could slow long-term growth and deepen structural constraints already affecting the economy. The report suggests that without sustained reforms, the Nigeria debt burden may continue to fluctuate within a high-risk range rather than stabilise meaningfully.
