The Nigeria Revenue Service, NRS, says the Nigeria economy recovery is gaining momentum after a series of difficult reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu’s administration. In an internal report, the revenue service said the economy had moved from what it described as “acute macroeconomic distress” towards greater stability and resilience.
The report attributed the improvement to reforms targeting major distortions inherited by the administration. According to the NRS, these included the financially unsustainable fuel subsidy system, an opaque foreign exchange regime, weak oil production and a tax base operating below its potential.
It acknowledged that the reforms created significant economic hardship initially but said several indicators were now pointing towards recovery. Among the indicators cited were moderating inflation, stronger balance-of-payments figures, rising crude oil production, increased tax collections and changes in the country’s productive structure.
The NRS reported that crude oil production increased from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026. That figure represented 104 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota. The report also said external reserves increased substantially, rising from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion as of July 2026.
Meanwhile, the balance of payments reportedly shifted from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus during the first quarter of 2026. Nigeria’s trade position also strengthened during the period, moving from a marginal surplus of about N44.7 billion to N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.
The revenue service attributed part of the improvement in petroleum supply to the naira-for-crude arrangement involving Dangote Refinery and other local refineries. It said the development had helped Nigeria transition into a net exporter of petroleum products after years of dependence on imports.
The report highlighted a significant increase in government tax collections. According to the NRS, collections rose from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion by July 2026. It attributed the increase to the digitisation of tax administration, four new tax reform laws, changes within the revenue service and an executive order designed to close revenue loopholes.
The report also linked the reforms to stronger activity in the capital market. Market capitalisation on the Nigerian Exchange, NGX, reportedly increased from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026. The NRS attributed the growth partly to improved macroeconomic credibility, banking-sector recapitalisation and increased domestic institutional investment.
The report said economic growth increased from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent during the first half of 2026. Annual capital importation also increased from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025. Capital inflows subsequently reached $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The figures form part of what the NRS described as evidence of an improving investment environment.
The NRS also pointed to developments in the compressed natural gas, CNG, programme. More than 100,000 vehicles had reportedly been converted by 2026, while more than $2 billion in investment was mobilised and over 10,000 jobs created.
Agriculture also received increased government funding. Federal agricultural allocation rose from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in the 2025 budget. The report cited measures including strategic grain reserve releases, the establishment of a N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, fertiliser distribution and agricultural mechanisation.
It said food prices had declined by about 50 per cent by March 2026, citing the Ministry of Agriculture. However, the NRS cautioned that agricultural policies would require several planting seasons before their full impact could be reflected in increased production.
Despite the positive indicators, the report acknowledged that Nigeria’s debt stock had increased. It rose from N87.4 trillion in 2023 to N159.28 trillion by late 2025. However, the NRS said the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 38 per cent in 2023 to 35.5 per cent in 2025 and 32.3 per cent in 2026. It described the decline as the first sustained reduction in more than a decade.
Debt servicing as a share of government revenue also fell from 68 per cent to an IMF-projected 53 per cent. The NRS said the figures suggested that the difficult reforms were beginning to produce measurable improvements, although sustaining the Nigeria economy recovery would depend on maintaining reforms and addressing remaining structural challenges.
