The International Monetary Fund raises Nigeria’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.4% in its World Economic Outlook report, citing stronger conditions and reforms.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.4 per cent, up from an earlier projection for this year. The update forms part of the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on Monday.
What the IMF Report Says
The IMF’s updated economic forecast expects Nigeria’s economy to expand by 4.4 per cent in 2026, reflecting stronger macroeconomic conditions and continued reform efforts. This figure surpasses the earlier predicted rate, underscoring a modest improvement in growth prospects.
The revision aligns with a broader regional trend in sub-Saharan Africa, where the IMF also sees moderate growth improvements across several economies.
Economic growth forecasts are estimates of how much a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase in a given year. Higher growth generally suggests expanding business activity, investment, and consumer demand.
Before this latest revision, the IMF had projected Nigeria’s growth at lower rates, reflecting the lingering impacts of global economic pressures and domestic structural challenges.
The IMF linked the higher projection to a mix of economic and policy developments:
Improved macroeconomic conditions such as stabilising exchange rates and monetary factors.
Ongoing domestic reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal management and business confidence.
Broader resilience in regional economies in sub-Saharan Africa.
These elements together point to a slightly stronger outlook than previously expected.
Nigeria’s revised growth outlook comes amid continuing efforts by government and financial institutions to expand economic activity and attract investment. Other institutions, including the World Bank, also project increased growth for Nigeria in 2026, though estimates vary.
At the global level, the IMF’s January report anticipates the world economy will grow, driven by investment and demand, though risks remain from geopolitical tensions and shifting trade patterns.
Economic policy: A higher growth forecast may support confidence in national reforms.
Investment decisions: Growth projections often influence investor and business planning.
Fiscal outlook: Projected expansion impacts government revenue estimates and budget planning.
The IMF and other organisations will continue to monitor economic performance throughout 2026. Nigeria’s government and policymakers face ongoing decisions to sustain growth momentum and manage risks tied to external and domestic pressures.
