Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector recorded a major oil exploration decline in April 2026 after the country’s active rig count dropped by 41.7 per cent, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The development reflects weakening exploration and drilling activities within the oil and gas industry amid persistent investment and operational challenges.
Rig count is widely regarded within the petroleum industry as a key indicator of exploration, field development, and upstream investment activities. A higher rig count often signals increased drilling operations and future production growth, while declines generally indicate reduced exploration activities and weaker investor confidence.
Nigeria has continued efforts to raise crude oil production, attract fresh investments, and improve reserves under the Petroleum Industry Act, PIA. However, recurring issues including oil theft, infrastructure gaps, funding constraints, and regulatory uncertainties have continued to affect the sector.
The latest oil exploration decline comes at a period when Nigeria is also struggling to consistently meet its crude oil production quota allocated by OPEC.
According to OPEC’s May 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria’s rig count dropped from 17 rigs in March 2026 to 12 rigs in April 2026, representing a 41.7 per cent decline month-on-month. The report attributed the reduction to weaker upstream operational activities and slowing investment momentum in the sector.
OPEC data also showed that Nigeria’s average rig count declined to 13 in 2025 compared to 15 recorded in 2024, indicating a sustained slowdown in upstream exploration and drilling activities over the period.
The oil exploration decline contrasts with broader African industry performance, where total rig count reportedly increased from 42 rigs in March 2026 to 48 rigs in April 2026. Analysts noted that Nigeria accounted for a significant portion of the continent’s reduction in active drilling operations during the period.
Within OPEC, Nigeria remained behind several major oil-producing countries in terms of operational rig count. Saudi Arabia reportedly recorded 265 rigs in April 2026, while the United Arab Emirates operated 66 rigs and Iraq maintained 19 rigs during the same period.
Industry analysts warned that the continuing oil exploration decline could negatively affect Nigeria’s medium- and long-term crude oil production outlook if aggressive field development and exploration activities are not sustained.
Earlier industry data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, had also shown a major drop in upstream activities in February 2026, when active rigs reportedly declined from 40 in January to 22 in February.
The NUPRC has repeatedly stated that it intends to intensify exploration activities through stricter enforcement of the Petroleum Industry Act and the “drill or drop” policy aimed at ensuring licensed operators actively develop allocated assets.
Energy sector stakeholders have continued to call for stronger investment incentives, improved security around oil infrastructure, and faster implementation of regulatory reforms to reverse the current oil exploration decline within the country’s upstream petroleum industry.
Energy analysts say declining rig activity could reduce future crude oil output growth and weaken Nigeria’s ability to fully utilise global oil market opportunities. Lower exploration activities may also affect government revenue generation and foreign exchange earnings tied to petroleum exports.
Observers further note that the continued oil exploration decline highlights the need for stronger investor confidence, infrastructure upgrades, and stable policy implementation within the energy sector.
